Saturday, November 24, 2007

Weather...Alabama at Auburn...7 p.m.

UPDATE: At 3:50 p.m. my forecast hasn't changed much for the Auburn area. Rain has increased earlier than expected over North Alabama. I do think there is a good chance that it will rain some before the Alabama-Auburn game is over. Most of the rain will fall after the game.

I have been hesitant to post this forecast. The weather pattern that we are in today is a tricky one to predict. The models, helpful as they are, tend to not handle shallow layers of cold air well nor the timing of precipitation in "overrunning" situations.

Our weather remains under the influence of a slowly retreating high pressure system. Cold air lingers near the surface (high pressure causes air to sink) flowing in from the east. At the same time, warmer and moist air is beginning to rise up and over the cold air at the surface from the southwest. As I write at 8:45 this morning, a thin layer of altocumulus is spreading over the Tennessee Valley.

As the day progresses clouds will thicken as moisture increases from the top down. The trick will be in determining when the airmasses reach the critical point when the moisture condenses and a cold rain begins to fall over a given point.

Light rain will gradually overspread the state from the southwest. It will be a cool evening in Auburn, Alabama with temperatures around 50. The game will begin under cloudy skies. A few sprinkles may occur during the first half. A little rain may fall before the game is over, but the majority of the rain will occur after the game. Depending on how long the game lasts (that is harder to predict than the weather these days), rain probably will not be a factor most of the game.

For those travelling home after the game need to drive carefully, though, because most of you will be travelling in rainy conditions.

Here is a look at the tornadic weather from the 1983 Iron Bowl in Birmingham. Here is what it looked like on television. Thanks to Bill Murray and Tim Coleman for those interesting posts over at No tornadoes tonight!

One more prediction: Alabama 17 Auburn 15


Anonymous said...

Thanks! Roll Tide!

Mike Wilhelm said...

You are welcome! Rain or not, ROLL TIDE ROLL!